Published October 28, 2026 in Market Update

Rates are above 7%, but this market is still moving

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Primary buy box - St. Johns / South Jacksonville / Nocatee

Let's be honest about where rates are right now. Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% on October 22, 2026. CNBC reported the average contract rate for 30-year conforming loans at 7.37% as of October 28, 2026. Those are real numbers, and they matter to your monthly payment.

Here is what those rates did not do: stop buyers. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,472 homes sold across this market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 8.1% from the same three months in 2025. Sellers, that tells you real buyers are still out there. Buyers, that tells you competition did not disappear while you waited.

Notice that inventory fell hard. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows homes for sale across this market dropped 31.3% year over year. Fewer choices on the shelf means priced-right homes still move. And CNBC reported that mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 4% for the week ending October 28, 2026. Buyers are still shopping.

What each ZIP code looked like

The market is not one thing. Each ZIP tells a different story. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

A few things stand out. In ZIP 32259, the Julington Creek area, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows median days on market dropped 29 days compared with a year ago. That is a big shift. In ZIP 32081, which covers Nocatee, the median sale price rose 6.8% year over year to $699,787. In ZIP 32082, Ponte Vedra Beach, the median price fell 18.8%, but sales volume jumped 17.8%. That kind of move often means the mix of homes that sold changed, not that values collapsed.

Inventory is the real story

Realtor.com reported that Jacksonville-area inventory fell 13.7% year over year among the top 50 metros as of September 30, 2026. The Real Estate Data Aggregator numbers for these specific ZIPs show declines that are far steeper than that metro-wide figure. Less supply, with more buyers showing up, is why homes that are priced well are still getting offers.

Speed: who went fast, who took longer

Realtor.com reported that Jacksonville-area days on market fell 10 days year over year as of September 30, 2026. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the Julington Creek area improved even more than that. Median days on market in ZIP 32259 fell 29 days year over year, landing at 63 days. ZIP 32092, the Rivertown and Bartram area, dropped 13 days to 69 days. Nocatee in ZIP 32081 sat at 90 days, which is the longest of the four ZIPs, though still 2 days shorter than a year ago.

Quick contracts: more homes are going fast

One of the clearest signs of buyer demand is how quickly homes go under contract. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows that in ZIP 32082, Ponte Vedra Beach, 29% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share is up 13.3 points from a year ago. In ZIP 32259, 25.2% went under contract that quickly, up 9.5 points. Even in Nocatee, ZIP 32081, 21.6% of homes moved that fast, up 8.5 points.

What about prices?

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.4% from August 2025 to August 2026, and rose 0.3% from July to August 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis. In this market, the picture varies by ZIP. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows ZIP 32081, Nocatee, led with a 6.8% gain in median sale price year over year. ZIP 32092 was up 2.7%. ZIP 32259 was essentially flat, down just 0.1%. ZIP 32082, Ponte Vedra Beach, showed a large drop in median price, but the volume of sales there rose 17.8%, which suggests the mix of homes sold shifted rather than values simply falling.

What this means if you are thinking about selling

Supply is down sharply in every ZIP. Buyers are still showing up. Homes priced well are going under contract faster than they did a year ago. That does not mean every home sells quickly. The data covers a wide range of prices and conditions. Your street may read differently from the ZIP code as a whole. One block can behave very differently from the averages above.

What this means if you are thinking about buying

Rates are real and they affect your payment. Freddie Mac's 7.32% average on October 22, 2026 is not a small number. But waiting for rates to fall has not meant less competition here. Inventory dropped more than 31% across this market year over year. The homes are fewer. The buyers did not all go away. Drive the commute at rush hour before you decide on a neighborhood. Get your insurance quotes and check the flood zone early, before you fall in love with a house. Those costs can surprise relocation buyers.