Published October 24, 2026 in Market Update

Prices are not moving the same way in every part of this market

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Primary buy box - St. Johns / South Jacksonville / Nocatee

You have probably seen a headline saying Jacksonville prices are up. Redfin reported a 1.5% year-over-year gain in September 2026. That number is real. But it covers a lot of ground. When you look at what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted inside this market for the three months ending August 31, 2026, the picture is more complicated than one number can hold.

That matters whether you are selling or buying. A pricing strategy built on a broad city average can miss by a lot when the ZIP code next door is moving in a different direction.

What the numbers actually show, ZIP by ZIP

Look at those price changes side by side. Nocatee, ZIP 32081, saw the Real Estate Data Aggregator record a median sale price of $699,787, up 6.8% from the same three months in 2025. That is real growth. The Julington Creek area, ZIP 32259, came in at $549,450, essentially flat, down just 0.1%. Those are two very different stories happening at the same time, in the same general market.

Then there is Ponte Vedra Beach, ZIP 32082. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median sale price of $852,500, which sounds strong. But that is down 18.8% from the same period last year. That kind of shift usually means the mix of homes that sold changed, not that every home lost nearly a fifth of its value. Still, it is a number worth understanding before you price anything in that ZIP code.

Inventory fell hard across all four ZIPs

One thing every ZIP code shares: fewer homes for sale. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,433 homes for sale across all four ZIPs combined for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 31.3% from the same period a year earlier. Realtor.com reported Jacksonville inventory declined 13.7% year over year among the top 50 metros. The local drop is steeper than the metro average.

Less supply with steady or growing sales tends to support prices. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,472 homes sold across the four ZIPs combined, up 8.1% from the same three months in 2025. Buyers are still buying. Sellers just have less competition.

Homes are going under contract faster than last year

Speed improved in every ZIP. Realtor.com reported Jacksonville days on market fell 10 days year over year. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows something similar inside this market. In the Julington Creek area, ZIP 32259, median days on market dropped 29 days compared with the same period in 2025, landing at 63 days. That is a meaningful shift.

Nearly 3 in 10 homes in Ponte Vedra Beach, ZIP 32082, went under contract within two weeks of listing, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That share rose 13.3 points from the same period last year. Well-priced homes in that ZIP are moving. The ones sitting are the ones priced wrong for the mix of buyers actually shopping there.

Rates are still a factor for every buyer in this market

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. That is the real cost of money right now. It shapes what buyers can offer, and it shapes how sellers need to think about their price. A home that might have sold easily at one rate environment needs a sharper strategy at 7.32%.

What this means if you are selling

The broad Jacksonville number from Redfin is a starting point, not a strategy. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows that prices rose nearly 7% in one ZIP and fell nearly 19% in another, in the same three-month window. Your price has to match your ZIP, your street, and the homes that actually closed near you. Not a metro average.

The good news for sellers: inventory is down sharply, sales are up, and homes that are priced well are going under contract faster than they were a year ago. That is a workable environment. It just requires precision, not optimism.

What this means if you are buying

If you are relocating to this area, do not let a broad headline set your expectations. The Julington Creek area, Nocatee, and Ponte Vedra Beach are not the same market. Price per square foot, days on market, and competition all read differently depending on the ZIP. Confirm school zoning directly with the district. Get insurance quotes and check the flood zone before you fall in love with a specific address. And drive your commute at rush hour, because drive times vary more than most people expect.