Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Less inventory is shaping this market more than headlines are

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Mandarin/Baymeadows/ SS

You may have read that the housing market is opening up. Realtor.com reported active listings topped 1.16 million homes nationally in September 2026. That sounds like relief for buyers. But what is happening here is a different story.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 748 homes for sale across Mandarin, Baymeadows, and Southside in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 25.3% from the same three months in 2025. Fewer choices locally, even as national supply grows.

That gap between national headlines and local reality matters. If you are a buyer expecting more options, or a seller wondering whether you have leverage, the local number is the one that counts.

What the numbers show across each ZIP code

All five ZIP codes saw inventory fall. The sharpest drop was in 32256, the Baymeadows corridor. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 293 homes for sale there, down 32% from a year ago. Days on market fell 20 days shorter at the same time. Homes are moving faster with less to choose from.

Prices moved in different directions depending on where you look. That is worth paying attention to.

Prices: up in some places, down in others

In 32257, the Real Estate Data Aggregator showed the median sale price rose 6.6% to $362,500. That is the one ZIP where prices climbed year over year.

In 32223, the median came in at $440,000, but that was down 5.4% from last year. In 32258 it was $377,083, down 3.3%. In 32217 it was $309,994, down 4.6%. In 32256 it was $404,000, down 1.7%.

A dip in median price does not always mean sellers lost ground. It can reflect which homes happened to sell that period. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Local medians moved differently. One number does not tell the whole story.

Homes are going under contract faster

In 32223, the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 39.3% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share was up 18.8 points from a year ago. Nearly 4 in 10 homes in that ZIP did not sit long at all.

In 32257, 35% of homes went under contract within two weeks, up 8.3 points. In 32258 it was 25.9%. In 32256 it was 21.4%. In 32217 it was 22%.

Sellers are still getting close to asking price

The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed sale-to-list ratios ranging from 97% in 32223 to 98.5% in both 32257 and 32258. That means sellers are landing within a couple of points of their asking price, even in a market where some medians dipped.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Here, sellers are not cutting nearly as often. Limited inventory gives them less reason to.

Rates are not helping buyers catch a break

Realtor.com reported mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. Fannie Mae, as reported by CNBC, forecasts the 30-year fixed rate at 7.5% for all of 2027.

Higher rates slow buyers down. But pending sales across this market were up 1.8% from a year ago, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Buyers are still moving, even if more carefully.

One more thing worth saying: these numbers cover whole ZIP codes. A single street, a specific subdivision, or a particular price range can read very differently from the ZIP average. If you want to know what is happening right around your home, that is a different and more useful conversation.