Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Keystone is giving buyers more room to negotiate

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Orange Park/Green Cove/Keystone

One number tells the Keystone story right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 6.5 months of supply in ZIP 32656 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is more than any other ZIP code in this market. More supply means sellers are competing harder for buyers.

To put that in perspective, the other ZIP codes in this market sit between 3.3 and 4.5 months of supply, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Keystone is in a different place right now. That matters if you own a home there.

What the Keystone numbers actually say

The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median sale price of $295,000 in ZIP 32656 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 7.8% from the same three months in 2025. Prices dipped, and that is worth saying plainly.

Homes there sold at 95.8% of list price on average, also per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Compare that to Orange Park (ZIP 32073) at 97.9%, Oakleaf (ZIP 32068) at 98.6%, and Green Cove Springs (ZIP 32043) at 98.7%. Keystone buyers are getting more off the asking price than buyers anywhere else in this market.

Only 2.7% of Keystone homes sold above list price in that period, the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows. That is down 3.3 points from a year before. Across the rest of this market, that share is rising. Keystone is moving in the opposite direction.

Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings nationally had price cuts in September, the highest share since October 2022. Keystone's own numbers fit that picture. Sellers are adjusting. Some are getting there faster than others.

For Keystone sellers: price is the lever

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 37 homes sold in ZIP 32656 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 26% from the same period in 2025. Pending sales fell 24.4% over the same stretch. Fewer buyers are moving forward.

Median days on market in Keystone was 69 days, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is actually 17 days shorter than a year ago, which is encouraging. But with 6.5 months of supply and prices down 7.8%, the homes that are selling are the ones priced to sell. Overpricing costs time, and time costs money in this ZIP code.

Orange Park and Oakleaf are a different story

Orange Park (ZIP 32073) saw 146 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 1.4% from a year before, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Months of supply there dropped to 3.3, and 30.3% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That is a market with real momentum.

Oakleaf (ZIP 32068) had 244 homes sold in the same period, also up 4.3% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Supply there is 4.5 months, which is higher than Orange Park but still well below Keystone. Homes for sale in Oakleaf actually grew 8.1% year over year, so buyers have more to choose from.

Green Cove Springs is moving faster than you might expect

ZIP 32043 covers Green Cove Springs, and the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 288 homes sold there in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 24.7% from a year before. Pending sales rose 15.3%. Median days on market fell 30 days, the biggest drop in this market. Something is working there.

The median sale price in ZIP 32043 was $367,000, up 2.5% from a year ago, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is the highest median in this market. And homes for sale there fell 13.7% year over year, which means less competition for sellers who are priced right.

The wider picture: rates are not helping

Mortgage rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025, according to Realtor.com. Fannie Mae, as reported by CNBC, is forecasting rates at 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% through 2027. Higher rates slow buyers down. That pressure is real across every ZIP code here.

CNBC also reported that pending home sales nationally were down 8.5% year over year in September, per Zillow. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows pending sales across this entire market, all five ZIP codes combined, fell 1.9% over the same stretch. This market is holding up better than the national trend, but it is not immune.

What this means if you are thinking about selling

Your ZIP code matters more than the market average right now. A home in Orange Park and a home in Keystone are in very different spots, even though they are a short drive apart. The county line, the neighborhood, and the price point all shape what your home does once it hits the market.

Relocation buyers in particular need to check insurance costs and flood zone status early, before they fall in love with a specific address. Those costs vary by property and can change the math on a purchase. Get quotes before you make an offer.

One more thing worth saying: the ZIP code numbers tell a broad story. One street can read very differently from the whole area. If you want to know what the data says about your specific address, that is exactly the kind of thing worth a conversation.