Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is down sharply across this market

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Primary buy box - St. Johns / South Jacksonville / Nocatee

That number is the one fact that changes what both buyers and sellers should do right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,433 homes for sale across this market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 31.3% from the same three months in 2025. Realtor.com reported a 13.7% year-over-year inventory decline across the Jacksonville metro among the top 50 metros. Our local drop is more than twice that.

For sellers, less competition can help. But it only helps if the price is right. Homes that are overpriced still sit. For buyers, fewer choices mean you need to know your must-haves before you start. When the right home appears, you may not have a week to think it over.

What the numbers show, ZIP by ZIP

All four ZIPs in this market saw inventory fall. The drops ranged from about 23% to nearly 35%. That is not a one-neighborhood story. It is a market-wide shift.

Sales are up even as supply fell

Here is what makes this interesting. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,472 homes sold across this market in the same three months. That is up 8.1% from a year before. More homes are selling, and there are fewer of them to choose from. That combination tightened months of supply across every ZIP.

Prices held steady, and days on market dropped

Prices did not spike, but they did not fall either. The Julington Creek area (32259) saw a median sale price of $549,450, down just 0.1% from a year before, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. The Rivertown and Bartram area (32092) came in at $480,824, up 2.7%. Nocatee (32081, which carries a Ponte Vedra mailing address) reached $699,787, up 6.8%. Ponte Vedra Beach (32082) was $852,500, though the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows that figure is down 18.8% year over year, which reflects a shift in the mix of homes that sold there, not necessarily what any one home is worth.

Days on market fell in every ZIP. The Julington Creek area dropped 29 days year over year, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is a meaningful change. Homes that are priced well are not sitting as long as they were a year ago.

More homes are going under contract fast

In Ponte Vedra Beach (32082), the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 29% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share is up 13.3 points from a year before. In the Julington Creek area (32259), 25.2% went under contract that quickly, up 9.5 points. These are not every home. Most still take longer. But the share moving fast has grown in every ZIP.

One note on rates

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.68%. Rates above 7% slow some buyers down. But the sales numbers here show buyers are still moving. Fewer listings mean the ones that do hit the market get more attention.

What this means if you are a seller

Less competition is real. But it does not replace good pricing. The sale-to-list ratios across this market ranged from 95.9% to 98.4%, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Sellers who push too far above market value still end up negotiating down. The edge goes to homes that are priced right from day one.

What this means if you are a buyer

Fewer homes to choose from means you need a clear picture of what matters most to you. Know your must-haves before you start. When something fits, you may not have long. Realtor.com reported that days on market across the Jacksonville metro fell 10 days year over year. Locally, the drops were even larger in some ZIPs. Drive your commute at rush hour before you fall in love with a neighborhood. Confirm school zoning directly with the district. And get your insurance quotes early, before you are under contract. Buyers in this area often underestimate what insurance costs.