Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is down sharply across this market

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Primary buy box - St. Johns / South Jacksonville / Nocatee

Here is the number that changes everything right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,433 homes for sale across the Julington Creek, Rivertown, Bartram, and Nocatee areas combined in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 31.3% from the same months a year before. New listings slipped only 2.2% over the same stretch. Buyers absorbed inventory far faster than sellers pulled back from listing.

That gap between inventory falling 31.3% and new listings falling only 2.2% tells the real story. Homes are not sitting. They are being bought. Realtor.com reported that Jacksonville inventory fell 13.7% year over year among the top 50 metros. Our local market dropped more than twice that rate.

What this looks like ZIP by ZIP

Every ZIP in this market saw inventory fall. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked each one for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

Nocatee, ZIP 32081, saw the steepest inventory drop at 34.9%, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That ZIP also had the highest median sale price of the four at $699,787, up 6.8% from a year before. Note that Nocatee has a Ponte Vedra mailing address, but it is its own community, not Ponte Vedra proper.

ZIP 32082, which covers the Ponte Vedra Beach area, showed a median sale price of $852,500 according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That number was down 18.8% year over year, which is worth understanding. More sales happened in lower price bands within that ZIP. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 218 homes sold there, up 17.8% from a year before. More volume at lower price points can pull the median down even when the market is active.

Buyers are moving quickly when homes hit the market

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked how many homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. That share rose in every ZIP.

In ZIP 32082, 29% of homes went under contract within two weeks, up 13.3 points from a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. In ZIP 32259, that share was 25.2%, up 9.5 points. These are not small moves. Buyers who are not ready to act quickly are losing homes they want.

Rates are still a real factor for buyers

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. The 15-year averaged 6.73%. Realtor.com noted that mortgage rates topped 7% in September 2026. Fewer choices and rates above 7% together mean buyers need to be pre-approved and clear on their budget before they start touring.

If you are relocating to this area, get your insurance quotes and confirm the flood zone for any address early, before you fall in love with a home. Insurance costs in St. Johns County are not a small line item. That step can change your monthly payment more than most buyers expect.

What this means if you are selling

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,472 homes sold across the four ZIPs in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 8.1% from a year before. Supply fell while sales rose. That is a straightforward setup for sellers who price well from the start.

The average sale price as a share of list price was 98.4% in ZIP 32259 and 98.1% in ZIP 32092, both up slightly from a year before, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Homes priced right are closing very close to asking. Homes priced too high still sit. Realtor.com reported that 21.1% of U.S. sellers with active listings cut their asking price in the four weeks ending September 20, 2026. Overpricing is still a real risk even in a low-inventory market.

Supply is lean, but not gone

The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed 3 months of supply in both ZIP 32259 and ZIP 32092, and 2.7 months in ZIP 32081 (Nocatee). ZIP 32082 had 3.4 months. All four are down meaningfully from a year before. Three months of supply is generally considered a seller's market. None of these ZIPs are at zero. Buyers who are patient and prepared will still find homes.

One more note for anyone comparing St. Johns County to Clay County. The county line matters. Schools, commute routes, CDD fees, and tax rates are different on each side. If you are weighing communities like Fleming Island or Oakleaf against Julington Creek or Rivertown, the comparison deserves a real conversation, not a quick assumption. Neither county is automatically the better fit. It depends on your priorities.