Published November 1, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is down hard, and buyers are still moving

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Primary buy box - St. Johns / South Jacksonville / Nocatee

Here is the number that changes everything for sellers right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,433 homes for sale across this market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 31.3% from the same months a year before. At the same time, sales rose 8.1%, to 1,472 closed homes. Fewer choices. More buyers. That combination still puts a well-priced home in a real position to sell.

Realtor.com reported that Jacksonville inventory fell 13.7% year over year among the top 50 metros. This market fell more than twice that. That is not a small difference. It tells you the Julington Creek, Nocatee, and Ponte Vedra area is tightening faster than the broader Jacksonville picture.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% as of October 29, 2026. That is not a low rate, and buyers feel it. But the pending sales number, 1,427 contracts in the pipeline, says people are still moving forward. Rates slow some buyers. They do not stop the market.

Each ZIP tells its own story

The four ZIP codes in this market do not all move the same way. Here is what the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

Speed: more homes are going fast

One of the clearest signs of a tighter market is how quickly homes go under contract. The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked the share of homes that went under contract within two weeks of listing. All four ZIPs saw that share climb from a year before.

Nearly 3 in 10 homes in Ponte Vedra Beach went under contract in two weeks or less. That is a meaningful jump of 13.3 points from a year before, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Not every home moves that fast, but the trend is clear and it is moving in one direction.

Prices: mostly steady, one notable dip

Prices held up in most of this market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed the Nocatee area (32081) up 6.8% to a median of $699,787. The Rivertown and Durbin area (32092) was up 2.7% to $480,824. The Julington Creek area (32259) was essentially flat, down just 0.1% to $549,450.

Ponte Vedra Beach (32082) showed a median sale price of $852,500, down 18.8% from a year before. That is a real number and worth naming honestly. It does not mean the market there is weak. At that price point, a few large sales can move the median significantly in either direction. The Real Estate Data Aggregator also counted 218 sales there, up 17.8% from the year before. More sales, lower median. The mix of what sold changed.

The national picture adds context

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.4% from August 2025 to August 2026, and 0.3% from July to August on a seasonally adjusted basis. This market's price moves are not happening in a vacuum. They are happening in a national environment where prices are still, on balance, moving up.

Realtor.com also noted that days on market fell 10 days year over year across the Jacksonville area. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows this market outpacing even that improvement in two of the four ZIPs: the Julington Creek area was 29 days shorter than a year before, and the Rivertown and Durbin area was 13 days shorter.

What this means if you are selling

Less inventory is good news for sellers in principle. But it does not guarantee a fast sale or a high price. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows sale-to-list ratios running from 95.9% in Ponte Vedra Beach to 98.4% in the Julington Creek area. That means pricing still matters. A home priced right is getting close to its ask. A home priced wrong still sits.

Months of supply across this market runs from 2.7 months in Nocatee to 3.4 months in Ponte Vedra Beach, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Those are not extreme seller's market numbers, but they are lean. There is not much cushion for a buyer who wants options.

What this means if you are buying

Fewer homes for sale means less time to think. But Realtor.com reported that Jacksonville days on market fell 10 days year over year, and this market's own numbers confirm that trend. Drive your commute at rush hour before you decide where to focus. The gap between Julington Creek and Nocatee, for example, can feel very different on a Tuesday morning.

Also: get your insurance quotes and check the flood zone for any specific address before you get attached to it. Relocation buyers often underestimate what insurance adds to a monthly payment in St. Johns County. It is not a reason to walk away, but it is a number you need early.