Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Inventory is down, but this market is still moving

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Primary buy box - St. Johns / South Jacksonville / Nocatee

Here is the one thing that changes how you should think about this market right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,472 homes sold across St. Johns County and Nocatee in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 8.1% from the same stretch a year ago. At the same time, the number of homes for sale fell 31.3%. More buyers, fewer homes. That combination still matters, even if the wider picture looks softer.

Redfin reported in October 2026 that 80.2% of Jacksonville was classified as a buyer's market in September 2026. Sellers should know that number covers a broad area. The zip codes in this buy box are telling a different story, one where well-priced homes are still finding buyers.

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. That is not a small number. Redfin reported that the typical homebuyer's monthly payment hit $2,777, one of the highest levels on record. Buyers are feeling that. And yet, demand in this corner of St. Johns County held up. That tells you something about who is buying here.

What each zip code showed

The four zip codes in this buy box each have their own story. Let me walk through them plainly.

ZIP 32259: Julington Creek area

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 426 homes sold in ZIP 32259 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 3.1% from a year ago. The median sale price was $549,450, essentially flat, down just 0.1%. Homes sat on the market a median of 63 days, which is 29 days shorter than the same period last year. That is a meaningful shift. Sellers here are pricing closer to where buyers are, and it is working.

One in four homes in ZIP 32259 went under contract within two weeks of listing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put that share at 25.2%, up 9.5 points from a year ago. That is not every home, but it is a real portion. Priced right, homes here are not sitting.

ZIP 32092: World Golf Village and surrounding areas

ZIP 32092 was the busiest of the four. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 543 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 9.7% from a year ago. The median sale price rose 2.7% to $480,824. Inventory fell hard here, down 32.6%. Months of supply dropped to 3, down 1.9 months from a year ago. Buyers have fewer choices, and sellers with well-prepared homes are benefiting.

ZIP 32081: Nocatee

Nocatee carries a Ponte Vedra mailing address, but it is its own community and its own market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 285 homes sold in ZIP 32081 in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 5.9% from a year ago. The median sale price rose 6.8% to $699,787. That is the strongest price growth of the four zip codes.

Homes here took a median of 90 days to sell. That is the longest of the four zip codes, though only 2 days shorter than a year ago. Nocatee is a higher price point, and buyers there tend to take more time. Inventory fell 34.9%, the steepest drop of any zip in this group. Months of supply came in at 2.7, down 1.7 months from a year ago. If you are buying in Nocatee, the pool of available homes is smaller than it has been.

ZIP 32082: Ponte Vedra Beach

ZIP 32082 is the highest price point in this group. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price at $852,500 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 18.8% from a year ago. Before that number worries you, look at what else happened. Sales rose 17.8%. More homes sold, at a lower median. That often means the mix of what sold shifted, not that every home lost nearly a fifth of its value.

The sale to list ratio in ZIP 32082 was 95.9%, the lowest of the four zip codes. Buyers here are negotiating more room. But 29% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 13.3 points from a year ago. That is the highest quick-contract rate of any zip in this group. The right home, priced well, is still moving fast.

What this means if you are selling

Inventory fell 31.3% across this buy box. That works in your favor, but it is not a free pass. Realtor.com reported that Jacksonville days on market fell 10 days year over year, which matches what the Real Estate Data Aggregator shows in each zip. Homes are moving faster than they were. The ones that are not moving are usually priced ahead of where buyers are right now.

Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. Buyers are working harder to qualify. They are not going to stretch for an overpriced home when there are other options. Price it right from day one, and this market will reward you.

What this means if you are buying

You have more choices than buyers did a year ago, but not as many as the broader Jacksonville numbers might suggest. Inventory in this specific buy box is down sharply. Redfin reported 12,142 homes for sale across the Jacksonville buyer's market area in September 2026. But many of those are not in St. Johns County, and they are not in Nocatee. The homes you actually want are in shorter supply.

Get your insurance quotes early. Relocation buyers often underestimate what insurance costs here. Check the flood zone for any address before you fall in love with it. Premiums vary by property, and that cost matters to your monthly payment as much as the rate does. Drive your commute at rush hour too. I-295, SR-9B, and the Shands Bridge all behave differently at 7 a.m. than they do on a Saturday afternoon.