Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Green Cove stands out for stronger demand and tighter supply

By Angela GiGi Urbanski

Real estate, Orange Park/Green Cove/Keystone

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. home prices rose 2.6% year over year through July 2026. That is the backdrop. But in Green Cove Springs, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted something more striking: sales up 24.7% and homes for sale down 13.7% in the same period. Buyers are showing up there in bigger numbers, and they have fewer homes to choose from.

That combination matters. For sellers in Green Cove, it means real demand. For buyers, it means more competition than the wider market headlines suggest. And for everyone watching this area, it is worth knowing how each ZIP code in this market is reading right now.

The big picture across Orange Park, Green Cove, and Keystone

More homes sold across the whole market, and fewer were sitting available. That is a tighter market than a year ago. But the numbers look very different depending on which ZIP code you are in. One street can tell a different story than the whole.

Green Cove Springs: the standout of this market

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 288 homes sold in ZIP 32043 (Green Cove Springs) for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 24.7% from the same months of 2025. At the same time, homes for sale fell 13.7%. Supply dropped while demand climbed. Months of supply fell by 1.7 months, the largest drop in this market.

The median sale price in 32043 came in at $367,000, up 2.5% from a year ago. That lines up closely with what the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported for the whole country: prices up 2.6% year over year. Green Cove is keeping pace with the national number, and doing it with more sales volume and less inventory. Homes there took a median of 71 days to sell, but that is 30 days shorter than a year ago. That is a meaningful shift.

Pending sales in 32043 rose 15.3% year over year. That tells you demand is not slowing down heading into the next period. Buyers are still writing contracts.

Orange Park: steady, with prices holding

ZIP 32073, the core of Orange Park, showed 146 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 1.4% from a year ago. The median sale price was $311,000, up just 0.3%. Prices held, which is honest and stable, not exciting. Homes for sale fell 7.6%. Days on market came down 11 days to a median of 50. That is the fastest median in this market.

ZIP 32065, also carrying an Orange Park address and covering much of the Oakleaf area, showed a median sale price of $338,450, down 1.9% from a year ago. That small dip is worth noting if you are pricing a home there. Sales were up 1.4%, and homes for sale fell 7.9%. Days on market dropped 12 days to a median of 55. The sale-to-list ratio of 98.5% was the second highest in this market.

Orange Park proper and the Oakleaf area are different places with different price points and different feels. The numbers confirm that. Do not assume one ZIP tells the story of the other.

Middleburg: more inventory, prices still rising

ZIP 32068 (Middleburg) is the one ZIP in this market where homes for sale actually grew, up 8.1% from a year ago. That gives buyers a bit more room. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 244 homes sold, up 4.3%. The median sale price was $325,000, up 1.6%. Months of supply edged up 0.1 months to 4.5, the highest of the Orange Park ZIPs.

More inventory in Middleburg does not mean the market is soft. Sales are up, prices are up, and 20.4% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. But sellers there may need to be a little more patient, or a little more precise on price, than in Green Cove right now.

Keystone Heights: a quieter market with more caution needed

ZIP 32656 (Keystone Heights) tells a different story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 37 homes sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 26% from a year ago. The median sale price fell 7.8% to $295,000. Months of supply rose 1.7 months to 6.5. That is the highest in this market, by a wide margin.

Homes in 32656 sold at 95.8% of list price, down 0.6 points from a year ago. That is the lowest sale-to-list ratio in this market. Only 2.7% of homes sold above list price, down 3.3 points. Pending sales fell 24.4%. This is a smaller, more rural market, and it is reading softer than the rest of the area right now. Sellers there need honest pricing. Buyers may have more leverage than they expect.

How the ZIPs compare side by side

What the national picture adds

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. home prices rose 2.6% year over year through July 2026. Green Cove's 2.5% price gain is right in line with that. Meanwhile, Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025. That matters for buyers across all of these ZIPs.

Higher rates mean higher monthly payments. CNBC reported that a monthly payment on a median-priced home using a 30-year fixed mortgage consumed roughly 33% of a median family's income in 2025. That was 26% in 2022. If you are relocating to this area, get your insurance quotes and check the flood zone for any specific address before you fall in love with a house. Those costs add up fast and are easy to underestimate.

Realtor.com also reported that 20.8% of listings nationally took a price cut in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. That is a national signal. Not every home in every ZIP here is priced right on the first try. The data above shows which local markets give sellers more room, and which ones require more precision.

What this means for you

If you own in Green Cove Springs, buyers are showing up and inventory is tight. That is a different conversation than if you own in Keystone Heights, where supply is building and sales are softer. Same county, very different reads.

If you are buying, drive your commute at rush hour before you commit to a neighborhood. Routes like I-295 and the Shands Bridge read very differently at 7:30 in the morning than they do on a Saturday afternoon. That is one thing the data cannot tell you.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. These numbers give you the honest starting point. Your specific address, your specific home, tells the rest of the story.